[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT 07 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W/68W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS
DISPLACING ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 16N BETWEEN
64W-68W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 6N18W 6N23W 3N33W 1N42W 1N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 10W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 24W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE EQUATOR TO
6N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS FLORIDA WITH ATTENDANT
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 998 MB STORM CENTER LOW
N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N73W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N81W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF CONTINENTAL AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50'S ACROSS N FLORIDA TO THE
60'S IN S FLORIDA. PRECIPITATION WISE...THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST DYNAMICS IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N FROM 64W-72W WITH
THE SHOWERS HAVING CLEARED FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY...CONFLUENT
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE E GULF INTO THE W
ATLC BETWEEN 73W-89W. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CENTER IS PRODUCING LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 30N75W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA LATER THIS TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS NE AND
BRINGS IN DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE E ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING
S OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD S ACROSS THE GULF RESULTING IN
VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO HAS SHIFTED INTO
THE W GULF AND WILL BEGIN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE GENERALLY DRY/TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MEAN
AXIS EXTENDING FROM E VENEZUELA NE OVER THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC. THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH WEAK/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERING
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATING S OF 13N FROM 74W-82W. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC IS DISSIPATING OVER CUBA
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST. EXPECT THE
USUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH A SHARP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES E COAST...BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
50W-67W...AND TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC FROM 32N32W
THROUGH 20N38W TO 15N41W. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER MAKER CONTINUES
TO BE THE STORM CENTER ALONG THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO OVER W CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE STORM CENTER
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TRAILING
FRONT SWEEPING E THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC WATERS. FRONT WILL EXTEND E OF BERMUDA SOUTHWARD TO OVER
HISPANIOLA BY SAT NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT PRIMARILY N OF 25N.
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC FROM 30W-60W PRODUCING DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. OVER THE E ATLC...THE NEAR PERSISTENT
LOW IS NOW DRIFTING N AND IS N OF THE REGION. TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N22W TO 22N28W WITH ONLY POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

$$
WALLACE



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