[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED 04 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE LONE TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS MOMENT IS ALONG 13N50W 10N53W
6N54W MOVING WEST 5 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
20 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N51W 10N54W 7N54W...LEADING UP
TO ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA TO 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 9N12W 6N20W 5N30W 4N44W 5N50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 9N
BETWEEN 3W AND 19W INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 21W AND 26W...AND FROM 1S TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 31W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W...AND FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA TO 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N67W TO 30N71W TO SOUTH FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE NEAR 27N81W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 24N89W. TROUGH FROM THIS LOW
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN
83W AND 87W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DUG
ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT STILL IN TEXAS EAST OF 98W.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS
EAST OF 100W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED
EASTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 96W AND 104W IN NE MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO INTO BELIZE
AND GUATEMALA HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...WEAKER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN INLAND FROM
NICARAGUA TO EL SALVADOR TO SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A SURFACE TROUGH...AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER LAKE
MARACAIBO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE LAKE IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY WITH AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
TROUGH NOW IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N60W 10N58W
12N56W...AND BECOMING ISOLATED AT BEST WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 12N56W 15N52W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 18N. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...A BIT DRIER FOR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THEN ENHANCED AGAIN BY LATE-WEEK FOR THE
GREATER ANTILLES WEST OF PUERTO RICO THANKS TO A LATE-SEASON
COLD FRONT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION SAVE PERHAPS TRINIDAD AND SOUTHWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N67W TO 30N71W TO SOUTH FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE NEAR 27N81W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 24N89W. TROUGH FROM THIS LOW CENTER
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF THE BITS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WARMED...NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 72W AND
80W. SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THIS AREA
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ON TOP OF THIS
FRONT IS PURELY WESTERLY...AND IT STAYS THAT WAY UNTIL ABOUT 55W
TO 60W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS NEAR 31N34W. THE 1004 MB STORM CENTER IS NEAR 31N34W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THE GALE CENTER AND THE STATIONARY
FRONT THROUGH 32N52W TO 28N58W TO 26N70W TO 23N75W...ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N82W...TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER NEAR 14N86W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE GALE
CENTER...THROUGH 32N20W TO 26N23W TO 13N34W. THE STORM CENTER
IS NEAR 31N34W. AN OCCLUSION RUNS FROM JUST WEST OF THE CENTER
TO A 32N32W TRIPLE POINT. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT TO 32N27W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO
25N32W 20N36W 18N40W. THE CLOUDS WITH COMPARATIVELY THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND THE DEEPER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 27W AND 37W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SEEN EAST OF THIS DEEP LAYER SYSTEM.

$$
MT



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