[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED 04 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N51W 9N55W 2N56W MOVING WEST 5-10 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF WAVE.  SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER SURINAME.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N20W 4N40W 5N50W 7N56W.  PATCHES
OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 20W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
20W-23W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N88W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N91W
AND CONTINUES TO A 1011 MB LOW OVER N GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W.  A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE GULF LOW TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 27N84W 28N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 82W-87W...AND FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-82W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...N
MEXICO...AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N BETWEEN 90W-110W
MOVING E.  AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 94W-98W.  EXPECT...THE GULF LOW TO MOVE NE TO THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N79W IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND S FROM THIS LOW TO S FLORIDA AND TO THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA
RICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N
BETWEEN 60W-75W.  SMOKE IS STILL NOTED OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS
...AND S GUATEMALA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 9N68W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS NE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND 32N55W.  A THIN
BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA TO THE E CARIBBEAN
ALONG 14N83W 16N70W 13N65W.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...S OF HISPANIOLA IN 24
HOURS DUE TO STRONGER TRADES.  ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
BE E OF TRINIDAD IN 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
ALONG 32N67W 28N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 76W-80W.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N52W 20N60W.  A 998 MB STORM LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N33W.  AN OCCLUSION EXTENDS NE TO A
TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N31W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE
TRIPLE POINT TO 26N28W 16N40W MOVING E.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E
FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 32N24W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 31N-36N BETWEEN 27W-32W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  SEE ABOVE.  IMPRESSIVE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS ABOVE THE E ATLANTIC STORM AT 31N34W.  A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS S TO 10N48W.  EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC STORM TO BE
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


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