[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040615
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED 04 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE LONE TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS MOMENT IS ALONG 11N51W 5N53W
MOVING WEST 5 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N50W 11N52W 9N53W 7N54W...
LEADING UP TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA TO 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N13W 7N20W 6N30W 3N42W 5N50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N11W 3N23W 3N42W...AND FROM THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA TO 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N68W TO 30N72W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27.7N 81W...AND THEN THE STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 25N87W...AND ON TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23.6N 88.5W JUST NORTH OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE ISOLATED CELL HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DUG ITS WAY INTO WEST TEXAS...
NOW STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS COVER TEXAS EAST OF 100W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW REMAINS OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN A CLUSTER HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO INTO BELIZE AND NOW INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. COLD CLOUD TOPS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE WARMING IN AN AREA OF
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF COLOMBIA IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH NOW IS WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 15N51W 12N55W 10N60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 18N. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...A BIT DRIER
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THEN ENHANCED AGAIN BY LATE-WEEK FOR
THE GREATER ANTILLES WEST OF PUERTO RICO THANKS TO A LATE-SEASON
COLD FRONT. THE 11N51W 5N53W TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION SAVE PERHAPS TRINIDAD AND SOUTHWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N68W TO 30N72W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27.7N 81W...AND THEN THE STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 25N87W...AND ON TO A
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23.6N 88.5W JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A FEW CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM RADIUS OF
27N77W JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AT THE EAST CENTRAL
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27.5N 80.5...AND FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN
79W AND 81W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ON TOP OF THIS
FRONT IS PURELY WESTERLY...AND IT STAYS THAT WAY UNTIL ABOUT 55W
TO 60W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS NEAR 31N34W. THE 1008 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 31N33W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THE GALE CENTER AND THE STATIONARY
FRONT THROUGH 32N52W TO 28N57W TO 27N70W TO CUBA NEAR 22N81W.
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE GALE CENTER...THROUGH
32N21W TO 25N24W TO 9N28W. THE GALE CENTER IS NEAR 31N33W. AN
OCCLUSION RUNS FROM JUST WEST OF THE CENTER TO A 32N32W TRIPLE
POINT. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 32N28W. A COLD
FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 26N33W 20N37W 17N43W.
THE CLOUDS WITH COMPARATIVELY THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND THE DEEPER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 27W AND 37W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS SEEN EAST OF THIS DEEP LAYER SYSTEM.

$$
MT


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