[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE 03 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 11N MOVING W 5 KT.  ISOLATED
TSTMS REMAIN WITH THE WAVE OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND ADJACENT
WATERS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N26W 5N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 3N-8N FROM 9W-15W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 3N20W AND 5N36W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SE GULF IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER... RUNNING FROM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO A
1011 MB LOW JUST N OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 23N88W TROUGHING S INTO N
GUATEMALA.  SEVERE TSTMS DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED TSTMS DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT AND
A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  A REPEAT OF TODAY'S WEATHER PATTERN
IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER N... POTENTIALLY SHIFTING THE MAIN
THREAT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THE REST OF THE AREA NW OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS SUPERB WEATHER FOR MAY WITH LOWER-THAN-
AVERAGE DEWPOINTS OVER THE REGION AND MODEST E TO NE WINDS.
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS BANKED ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRES.. PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SHOWERS.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA THRU THE
WEEK UNTIL A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES NEARS... LIKELY
CAUSING A LOW TO FORM OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA FOR THU AND
POSSIBLY BRINGING DRIER AIR THRU THE ENTIRE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THIS COMPLEX FIRED ON A TROUGH OVER THE SE
GULF WITH THE TSTMS FEEDING OFF OF VERY WARM MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
AND STRONG VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR.  OTHERWISE ENHANCED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTM REMAIN IN AN 120 NM WIDE BAND FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS JUST S OF BARBADOS TO NEAR 16N70W.  MORE RAIN
LOOKS LIKELY FOR TOMORROW WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING ALONG LINE 9N57W TO 14N50W.  AN UPPER HIGH LIES OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN BASICALLY CONTROLLING THE ENTIRE REGION...
ALLOWING TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA AND MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE FAVORED REGIONS JUST N OF PANAMA.  RAIN
CHANCES LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS... A BIT DRIER FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.. THEN ENHANCED
AGAIN BY LATE-WEEK FOR THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF PUERTO RICO
THANKS TO A LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT.  THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SAVE PERHAPS TRINIDAD AND
SOUTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N72W TO NEAR WEST PALM
BEACH FLORIDA WITH A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE BOUNDARY.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH WSW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE W ATLC HALTING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE.  WLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLC RIDGING A BIT
ALONG 60W BEFORE BECOMING PART OF A LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC.  UPPER LOW IS FORMING NEAR 31N34W WITH A TROUGH S
TO 21N37W THEN SW TO 10N55W.  GENERALLY DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES
THE REGION W OF THE TROUGH.  1008 MB GALE LOW NEAR 31N33W IS
BECOMING THE DOMINANT LOW WITH A WARM FRONT E TO 31N28W AND COLD
FRONT S TO 23N34W THEN 17N44W.  TSTMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN
23W-36W CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS.  EXPECT THE LOW TO
LINGER IN ABOUT THE SAME SPOT AND INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS... PRODUCING HIGH SEAS AND WINDS OF GALE FORCE.  BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 20W-50W
DUE TO THE LOW.  DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS
BLANKET THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W DUE TO A WEAKENING AFRICAN
DUST OUTBREAK.  THE ATLC UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN SHOVED SOUTHWARD
TO ALONG ABOUT 5N DUE TO THE LARGE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
BLAKE

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