[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 03 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 13N MOVING WEST 5KT.  THE WAVE
IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER FRENCH
GUIANA AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 5N15W 3N30W 7N53W 3N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 9W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 14W-17W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 25W-28W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 1500 UTC A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH FLORIDA AND IS NOW
STATIONARY FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 24N80W 25N87W 20N89W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 65W-88W...AND FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
85W-88W.  10-15 KT N-NE WINDS PREVAIL N OF THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER.  ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS FROM 17N-31N ARE PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS THAT EXTEND TO THE GULF COAST AND INLAND TEXAS.  VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTREME SE
GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 85W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING
VERY LITTLE SOUTHERLY PUSH TO THE FRONT.  SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO
NOTED S OF 26N ALSO SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS
WITH LIMITED CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CLOUDINESS TO BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAIN RANGE IN MEXICO DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-84W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 69W-72W.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 60W-74W ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA
NEAR 11N71W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND
HISPANIOLA AT 20N68W.  CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE S OF 12N...WHILE SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE
N OF 12N.  EXPECT THE WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W AND EXTENDS
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A 1007 MB GALE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N36W WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRAILING SW ALONG 26N33W TO 22N35W 15N45W.  A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 31N32W 31N28W 29N24W.
AN OCCLUSION EXTENDS S FROM THE SAME LOW TO ANOTHER 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 24N37W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
LOW CENTERS FROM 24N-36N BETWEEN 21W-34W.  FURTHER S...A LARGE
AFRICAN DUST OUTBREAK IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA S OF
20N E OF 50W.  VERY DRY AIR WITHIN THE SURGE IS BLANKETING THE E
ATLC N OF THE ITCZ TO AFRICA.  THE ITCZ HAS ALSO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-80W IS
SLIGHTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT.  A
RIDGE IS BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N36W MOVING E.  STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW TO
THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.  EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO RETROGRADE AS A WARM FRONT AND EXTEND FROM 32N78W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE GALE LOW/
TRIPLE POINT LOW TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND BE NEAR 31N32W WITH CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER.  EXPECT THE
OTHER LOW TO DISSIPATE.

$$
FORMOSA



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