[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue May 3 06:00:51 CDT 2005

AXNT20 KNHC 031100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE 03 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 11N49W 8N50W 5N51W MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT.
THE WAVE HAS SLOWED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CENTER WEAKENING THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENTAL EASTERLY FLOW. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY
FOR FRENCH GUIANA AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY TOMORROW.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N16W 8N20W 4N30W 2N38W 3N44W 5N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N14W 3N17W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO
6N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
27N78W...OVER SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 24N86W. STATIONARY FRONT 24N86W TO 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N89W. TROUGH FROM 21N89W LOW CENTER TO
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23.5N
BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DISSIPATING JUST OFF KEY WEST/NEAR KEY WEST. SOME RAINFALL
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS WAS POSSIBLE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BRINGING AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF RAIN DURING MOST OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT PROBABLY WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA... THOUGH THIS IS
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST. CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK WHILE
CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT
BANKED UP THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE
IN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THANKS TO A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO
11N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WERE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL
SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
STRETCH FROM HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA
ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SURFACE
TROUGH...AND IN AN AREA OF A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A CONTINUED INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD OVERSPREAD WESTERN HAITI AND
JAMAICA ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF RAIN WITH A STEADY
INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SLOWLY-MOVING WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
31N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 24N86W. STATIONARY
FRONT 24N86W TO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N89W. TROUGH
FROM 21N89W LOW CENTER TO YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY
GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY IS FAR TO
THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT
TO BECOME STATIONARY SOON. TO THE EAST...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN UNTIL 50W ALONG WITH LOTS OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ALOFT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 26N34W...TUCKED AWAY UNDER HIGHER LEVEL OVERCAST
CLOUDS. THE SURFACE SITUATION SUPPORTED BY THE 26N34W CENTER
CONSISTS OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER
NEAR 25N39W TO A SECOND 1008 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 27N37W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N37W TO 29N35W AND 28N31W. A COLD FRONT
GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT OF 27N37W TO 22N37W 20N40W AND 15N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ALSO
COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ON NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
CENTER AND SHOULD COVER A LARGER AREA EXTENDING INTO THE MIDDLE
LATITUDES AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE AZORES HIGH
TIGHTENS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER NEAR 30N24W FOR SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC... MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 4N34W TO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N52W WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL JET RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 19N30W
WITH STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND THICK OVERCAST CIRRUS WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE JET. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS SOUTH OF
20N EAST OF 50W...BASED ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF
YESTERDAY...AND IT APPEARED THAT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT
WAS WEAKENING A BIT AS SLOW SETTLING OCCURS.

$$
MT

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