[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 02 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 49W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 15 KTS.
THE WAVE IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY WITHIN THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-51W.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARDS FRENCH
GUIANA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N15W 2N30W 3N40W 5N49W
4N51W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-25W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS
SW TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N80W 26N85W.  A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N88W 21N90W.  A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N80W 24N86W 21N87W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE TROUGH.  10-15 KT N-NE WINDS
PREVAIL N OF THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  ONSHORE WINDS
OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS FROM
17N-29N ARE PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS THAT EXTEND TO THE
GULF COAST AND THE TEXAS BORDER.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO 85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING VERY LITTLE SOUTHERLY
PUSH TO THE FRONT.  SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO NOTED S OF 26N ALSO
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.  EXPECT THE FRONT
TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN S FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW
COLOMBIA...PANAMA... AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
75W-81W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER LAKE
MARACAIBO VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 71W-72W.  BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 60W-70W ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO
BEYOND HISPANIOLA AT 20N68W.  CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 12N...WHILE SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY FAIR
SKIES ARE N OF 12N.  EXPECT THE WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W AND EXTENDS
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 30N73W TO 27N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
THE TROUGH FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 75W-78W.  OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A 1008 MB GALE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 26N43W WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRAILING SW ALONG 20N47W TO 18N54W.  A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N40W TO 16N50W 15N60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN
30W-42W.  1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N24W.
FURTHER S...A LARGE AFRICAN DUST OUTBREAK IS MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 49W.  VERY DRY AIR WITHIN THE
SURGE IS BLANKETING THE E ATLC N OF THE ITCZ TO AFRICA.  THE
ITCZ HAS ALSO BECOME MORE ACTIVE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH N OF 28N BETWEEN
75W-80W IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT.  A RIDGE IS BETWEEN 50W-75W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N40W.  STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.  EXPECT THE
W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N70W TO THE N BAHAMAS IN
24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE GALE LOW TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE NEAR 28N35W WITH CONVECTION E OF THE
CENTER.

$$
FORMOSA


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