[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON 02 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 49W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE HAS SLOWED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW
WEAKENING THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL ELY FLOW.  INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY FOR FRENCH GUIANA AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO
NE S AMERICA TOMORROW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N23W 2N35W 5N47W.  CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
18W-21W AND 27W-32W WITH A FEW TSTMS EMERGING OFF AFRICA NEAR
5N10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM JUST S OF
NAPLES FLORIDA TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 23N88W WITH A TROUGH S INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... NO
LARGE-SCALE AREAS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITHIN 75 NM OF THE BOUNDARY.  THE FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE S FLORIDA AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
BRINGING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN DURING MOST OF THE WEEK.
THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MID-WEEK
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...THOUGH THIS IS
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.  CONDITIONS DO LOOK NICE FOR THE NW GULF
AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK WHILE CLOUDY
DAMP CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT BANKED UP THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH MID/UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTROLLING ALL BUT THE NE PART OF THE
AREA.  DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE HIGH IS ALLOWING
TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N.  MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA QUIET EXCEPT NEAR THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 15N61W TO 15.5N70W WHERE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS.  A
CONTINUED INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE SW
CARIBBEAN WHILE THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE E CARIBBEAN SHOULD
OVERSPREAD W HAITI AND JAMAICA ON THU.  CONDITIONS IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
RAIN WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN TRADES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NW PART OF THE AREA HAS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING
NEAR 31N75W SW TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER
ENERGY IS FAR TO THE N OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH WSW
LIKELY CAUSING THE FRONT TO PULL UP STATIONARY SOON.  FARTHER
E... BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE REST OF THE W ATLC UNTIL
ABOUT 50W ALONG WITH LOTS OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT.  THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CONTROLLED BY A DEVELOPING 1007
MB LOW NEAR 27N40W MOVING ENE 15 KT.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
EASTWARD TO 28N33W AND A COLD FRONT RUNS ALONG 22N40W TO
17N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 40W-49W...
ASSISTING BY A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 29N38W.  GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW AND SHOULD COVER A LARGER
AREA EXTENDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDES AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND THE AZORES HIGH TIGHTENS.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
LINGER NEAR 30N24W FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG
WINDS.  IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM W
ATLC FROM 4N34W THEN W INTO NE S AMERICA NEAR 5N52W WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW TSTMS IN THE ITCZ.  UPPER JET RUNS
FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 19N30W WITH STRONG WLY FLOW AND
THICK OVERCAST CIRRUS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE JET.  AFRICAN DUST
REMAINS S OF 20N E OF 50W BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE EVENT IS WEAKENING A BIT AS SLOW SETTLING OCCURS.

$$
BLAKE

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