[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN 02 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 48W S OF 10N MOVING WEST 15 KTS.
THE WAVE IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY WITHIN THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 42W-51W.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING ONSHORE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRAZIL AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO FRENCH GUIANA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N5W 3N35W 3N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 12W-27W.  SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 2N BETWEEN
33W-36W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF AXIS FROM 40W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE E HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE.  THE SHORTWAVE FROM YESTERDAY WHICH BROUGHT VERY
STORMY CONDITIONS OVER THE E GULF HAS LIFTED NEWD LEAVING BEHIND
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS
PULLED UP STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE N TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ADDITIONALLY...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM
YESTERDAY HAS FALLEN APART EVEN THOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
CONVECTION CONTINUE ALONG THE LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY
DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OF THE UNITED STATES.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE AS MUCH
EQUATORWARD PROGRESS AS THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL GIVE THE FRONT A NUDGE SWD LATER TODAY
DRIVING IT INTO S FLORIDA. UPPER DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR AS
IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE OVER THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
TODAY AS THE FRONT LIMPS SWD.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATIONARY OR SE OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 26N90W
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ADDITIONALLY...BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE FOOTHILLS
OF E MEXICO S OF 26N.  UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
ZONAL THROUGH MID-WEEK SO EXPECT WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF S FLORIDA OR FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH
WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND
LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG THE TAIL END OF A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH TRAILING SWD FROM DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
ACROSS THE ISLAND OF DOMINICA TO 15N69W. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHED SWD OVER W CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL HAS DIMINISHED.  HOWEVER...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NW
CARIBBEAN AND ESPECIALLY THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL SAG SWD OVER THE SE GLFMEX AND FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. THE FRONT IS
ABSENT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS HAVE
LIFTED N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
BOUNDARY.  AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SEWD OVER
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT SWD AS WELL AS PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A 10008 MB GALE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N45W WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRAILING SW ALONG 20N47W TO 18N55W.  THE LOW/FRONT IS
BEING GENERATED BY A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH ALONG 43W WITH A
CLOSED LOW NEAR 25N.  STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM FROM 22N-34N BETWEEN 33W-43W.  BEHIND THE
TROUGH...CONFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS
TO AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N58W. THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BE NEAR 28N35W BY TUE MORNING.  IN ADDITION TO HIGH
WINDS/SEAS EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY FOCUSED N
AND E OF THE LOW CENTER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH EXTEND ALONG 28N32W TO
21N36W.  FURTHER S...A LARGE AFRICAN DUST OUTBREAK IS MARCHING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 49W.  VERY DRY AIR WITHIN
THE SURGE IS BLANKET THE E ATLC N OF THE ITCZ TO AFRICA.  THE
ITCZ HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12W-27W.

$$
RHOME


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net