[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN 02 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 47W/48W S OF 10N MOVING WEST 15
KTS.  THE WAVE IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY
WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 42W-51W.  ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
MOVING ONSHORE COASTAL AREAS OF BRAZIL AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO
FRENCH GUIANA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N5W 2N35W 3N51W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF
ITCZ E OF 25W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 42W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE E HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE.  THE MOST NOTABLE OF THESE DISTURBANCES BROUGHT VERY
STORMY CONDITIONS YESTERDAY AS IT PRODUCED A MCC WHICH
PROPAGATED SEWD OVER THE E GULF.  CURRENTLY...THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING JUST NW OF W CUBA AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
AND LIMITED SUPPORT.  NEXT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY DIVING
SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD IGNITE A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER.  AT THE
SURFACE...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC CUTS ACROSS
FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 27N86W CONTINUING
STATIONARY SWD TO A SECOND..1011 MB...LOW JUST N OF THE THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W.  EARLIER CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS
TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BREAK UP WITH INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH IS PUSHING SWD OVER W CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH THE FRONT OR SE OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. EARLIER STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING BUT BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE
OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF E MEXICO S OF 22N.  THE STATIONARY FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA LATER
TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE N CENTRAL UNITED
STATES CARVES OUT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT.
UPPER DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEARS AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE OVER
THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY AS THE FRONT LIMPS
SWD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND
LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT ALONG THE TAIL END OF A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SWD FROM DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC.  THE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY FROM 14N-16N E OF 68W.   ELSEWHERE...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE SE
GLFMEX HAS PUSHED SWD OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  THIS
BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING BURSTS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN UNSTABLE/WET DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SWD OVER THE SE
GLFMEX AND FLORIDA LATER TODAY.  THE WEAK BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BECOMING DIFFUSE AND STATIONARY
TUES FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING
SW TO FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. THE FRONT IS ABSENT OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS HAVE LIFTED N OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOUNDARY.  AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES SHOULD PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER TODAY.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A DEVELOPING
GALE...1011 MB LOW...IS LOCATED NEAR 25N46W.  THE LOW IS BEING
GENERATED BY A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
25N45W.  STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORM FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 35W-45W.  BEHIND THE
TROUGH...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS TO THE BAHAMAS. THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR 27N37W BY
TUE MORNING. THE LOW WILL GENERATE HIGH WINDS/SEAS WITH PLENTY
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY FOCUSED N AND E OF THE LOW CENTER.
FURTHER S...A LARGE AFRICAN DUST OUTBREAK IS MARCHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 48W.  VERY DRY AIR WITHIN THE
SURGE IS LARGELY SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 25W-43W.
THE ITCZ IS MOST ACTIVE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W AS WELL
AS E OF 25W TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
RHOME


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