[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 27 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N15W THE S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 23W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 42W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA E OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES HAS BEGUN TO
SHIFT E MOVING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF AND AMPLIFYING THE
RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND E UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OUT
OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS. THIS PATTERN IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS UP TO 130 KT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE E U.S. FROM TEXAS NE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
ADDITIONALLY...A COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IS OBSERVED MOVING S
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF OVER E LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N90W EXTENDING SW TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN
BROWNSVILLE AND TAMPICO. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 78W.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
BY A WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 13N77W.
RESULTING UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND IS QUITE DRY WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CREATING A STABLE PATTERN ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS LIMITED WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALSO NOTED IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE S OF 15N
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 78W AHEAD OF A AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE SE U.S. AND GULF
WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST AT THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA STATE LINE EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG 30N77W TO
31N72W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF BOUNDARY EMERGING OFF THE
NE COAST OF GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. SHIFTING E...BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-60W WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N35W EXTENDING
SW TO 25N50W THEN DISSIPATING 24N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
28N-31N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 28N.
OVER THE E ATLC...AN E/W ORIENTED DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE BISECTS THE
AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING FROM AFRICA NEAR GUINEA
BISSAU S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 8N31W. AT THE SURFACE...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
SW THROUGH A SECOND 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N27W TO 24N35W. MODERATE
TRADES ARE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION AND ITCZ ACTIVITY
REMAINS CONFINED NEAR THE EQUATOR.

$$
WALLACE



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