[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN 27 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N1W 3N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 2S45W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 4N BETWEEN 3W-11W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 1N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS THE MAIN
WEATHER MAKER TODAY AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE NW
GULF. AMPLIFYING RIDGE LIES IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE E
GULF AND E UNITED STATES.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS
UP TO 130 KT EXTENDS ACROSS THE E U.S. FROM TEXAS NE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM MOBILE BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF VERACRUZ. FRONT THEN
EXTENDS INLAND ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING
DURING THE DAY AND AN IMPRESSIVE LINE OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SWD TO 22N92W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT WHICH
WILL CLEAR S FLORIDA LATE MONDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
OVER THE SW GULF.  IN FACT...VERACRUZ MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
BY A WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W.
RESULTING UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND IS QUITE DRY WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CREATING A STABLE PATTERN ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS LIMITED WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALSO NOTED IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE S OF 15N
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES.  UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA.   THE FRONT THEN
WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC...
BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE W ATLC AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE SE U.S. AND GULF WITH A
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EMERGING OFF THE SE COAST NEAR GEORGIA/SC
EXTENDING ESE AT THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA STATE LINE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ALONG 30N77W TO 31N70W. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE N OF 27N BUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ENTIRE TO THE BAHAMAS. FRONT THEN MOVES QUICKLY EWD
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED N OF 25N AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NWD. SHIFTING E...BROAD UPPER
TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-60W WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N35W
EXTENDING SW TO 24N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WEAKENING FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EWD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS SUPPORTING A LINE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE.  OVER THE E
ATLC...AN E/W ORIENTED DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE BISECTS THE AREA WITH
UPPER LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING FROM AFRICA NEAR MAURITANIA WSW TO
12N40W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH
400-500 MILES WSW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 20N47W. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AND ITCZ ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED NEAR THE EQUATOR.

$$
RHOME




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