[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 27 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N18W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
29W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER AFRICA E
OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS DIGGING S
INTO TEXAS AND N MEXICO AMPLIFYING THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND
E UNITED STATES. THIS IS SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE
NE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE E SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SE U.S. AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS.
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SE U.S. AND NE GULF IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N
COVERING MOST OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THE EASTERN SHORTWAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS UP TO 150 KT
WITH 130 KT OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING ACROSS THE E U.S. FROM
TEXAS NE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IS OBSERVED MOVING S ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH TEXAS INTO NW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF NEAR 30N93W EXTENDING SW TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS/MEXICO NEAR BROWNSVILLE. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT APPEAR
MOST IMPRESSIVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET. REMAINING OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG
80W.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
BY A WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N78W.
RESULTING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY NW AND QUITE DRY WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CREATING A STABLE PATTERN ALOFT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALSO NOTED
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 80W AHEAD OF A AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT REMAINS INLAND OVER SE U.S. ALTHOUGH
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE STARTING
TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA. SHIFTING E...BROAD UPPER
TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-60W WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N36W EXTENDING
SW TO 26N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT E OF 50W. OVER THE E ATLC...AN E/W ORIENTED DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGE BISECTS THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING FROM
AFRICA NEAR S MAURITANIA ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
13N45W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS SW THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N27W TO 20N40W.
MODERATE TRADES ARE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  VERY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION AND ITCZ
ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED NEAR THE EQUATOR.

$$
WALLACE


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