[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT 26 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W EQ40W EQ50W.  NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 3W-6W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-5N BETWEEN 8W-13W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 2S-2N
BETWEEN 27W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IS OBSERVED MOVING SWD ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH TEXAS AND APPROACHING THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO.  FURTHER E... A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE N
GULF ALONG 29N LIFTING NWD TRIGGERING AN AREA OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA.  THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO PRESENTLY HAS WARM SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE S STREAM UPPER JET
REMAINS ACTIVE WITH YET ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES.  THE SHORTWAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG...150 KT...SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING
ACROSS THE S UNITED STATES FROM TEXAS EWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND EXTEND A COLD FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE W
GULF WILL HAVE COLD N WIND AND THE E GULF WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM AIRMASS WITH S WIND.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
BY A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST E OF NICARAGUA NEAR
12N81W.  RESULTING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY NW AND QUITE
DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE CREATING A STABLE PATTERN ALOFT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALSO
NOTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED NAMELY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 56W-64W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.  THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
BUILDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE W ATLC.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING NWD TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  SHIFTING EWD...BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 40W-70W
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N40W AND
EXTENDING SW TO 30N43W THEN DISSIPATING TO 25N55W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  OVER
THE E ATLC...AN E/W ORIENTED DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE BISECTS THE AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING FROM AFRICA NEAR MAURITANIA TO N
PORTIONS OF S AMERICA.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  MODERATE TRADES ARE S
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION AND ITCZ ACTIVITY REMAINS
CONFINED NEAR THE EQUATOR.

$$
FORMOSA


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