[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 22 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 2N29W 1N42W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
EQUATOR FROM 3W-7W AND S OF 4N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERED THE GULF HAS RELAXED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS WITH A WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW WELL INLAND
OVER OKLAHOMA/KANSAS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND DRY AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER OVER THE GULF AND WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A STATIONARY
FRONT CROSSES INTO THE SE UNITED STATES OVER S GEORGIA THEN
MEANDERS ALONG THE N GULF STATES THEN NW OVER E TEXAS. SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W IN THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ALONG 28N83W TO 26N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF 27N E OF 87W TO
THE COAST OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N50W WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING E/W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF
84W...TROPICAL ATLC W OF 20W...AND THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF
26N. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE W
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO COLOMBIA
ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE W
ATLC. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO
PREVAIL IN THE LOWER LEVELS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG
71W WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE AREA
PULLING UP STATIONARY NEAR 32N76W TO INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES OVER S GEORGIA. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING MAINLY SW FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OF YESTERDAY IS NOW A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N55W-29N55W-27N56W. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N
FROM 47W-53W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N13W SW TO 30N17W WHERE
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 25N31W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
OVER THE E ATLC IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM E OF TROUGH. AN ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE ATLC FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS SW TO A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
24N47W TO A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N72W. THERE
IS NO LARGE-SCALE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLC EXCEPT IN THE FAR W ATLC WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER
FLORIDA. FURTHER S...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOVING OFF W AFRICA ARE
LARGELY SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA
INCLUDING THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net