[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 212303
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 22 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N17W 2N32W EQ50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 5N14W AND S OF 2N BETWEEN
37W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IN THE NE GULF WITH A PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO JUST OFFSHORE OF
TAMPA PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS E OF 88W N OF 26.5N
INCLUDING FLORIDA..  WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FOUND NEAR THE TSTMS
WITH DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.  THINGS ARE MUCH QUIETER IN
THE W GULF WITH SLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND
PRODUCE TSTMS OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE TUE... WEAKENING ON WED
BEFORE WHIMPERING OUT OVER THE FAR SE GULF ON THU.

CARIBBEAN...
SAME SONG DIFFERENT DAY IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 13N IN THE E CARIBBEAN SAGGING WSW
TO 10N IN THE W CARIBBEAN.  THE RIDGE HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE
EASTWARD WITH INCREASING TROUGHING OVER THE NW ATLC AND MORE SW
FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.  A BIT MORE UPPER MOISTURE IS OVER
THE AREA W OF 70W THOUGH RAIN IS SPOTTY AT BEST.  VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN FOR THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED TRADEWIND SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF
GUADELOUPE AND BETWEEN 64W-67W N OF 13N.  AN INCREASE IN TRADES
LOOKS LIKELY THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC... WHICH SHOULD ALSO INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR MORE SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.  NO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE ON THE HORIZON.

ATLANTIC...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED
FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO.  INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
AHEAD OF A CENTRAL USA TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW UPPING THE RAIN CHANCES.  MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N48W EXTENDS FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE CAPE VERDES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LINKED TO THE ITCZ.  1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS NEAR 24N50W RIDGING ENE TO THE CANARY ISLANDS WESTWARD TO
25N70W.  THIS HIGH SHOULD INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS MID-LATITUDE
FLOW WEAKENS AND A MORE TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATION
DEVELOPS.  WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N15W TO 27N21W WITH
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY.  A SIGNIFICANT DUST
OUTBREAK CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC S OF A LINE FROM 26N15W NEAR
NW SAHARA TO THE FAR SE CAPE VERDES TO NEAR 10N29W.

$$
BLAKE

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