[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 22 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N24W 1N41W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N9W-2N12W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 2N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 44W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-30W AND S OF
3N W OF 48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW IS WELL INLAND OVER OKLAHOMA WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT MAJOR
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE GULF AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES INTO
THE SE UNITED STATES OVER S GEORGIA THEN MEANDERS ALONG THE NE
GULF STATES THEN NW OVER MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 30N78W IN THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG
29N84W TO 27N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NE FLORIDA
MOVING INTO THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN...
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N49W WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING E/W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF
80W...TROPICAL ATLC W OF 20W...AND THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF
27N. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE W
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM OVER COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA ACROSS E
CUBA TO PUERTO RICO ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE W ATLC.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO
PREVAIL IN THE LOWER LEVELS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 13N TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 78W-82W.

ATLANTIC...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG
60W WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE AREA
PULLING UP STATIONARY NEAR 32N79W TO INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES OVER S GEORGIA. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING MAINLY SW FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N51W-27N55W. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N
OF 28N FROM 44W-50W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE
ATLC WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N12W SW TO
30N14W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 25N28W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE E ATLC IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM E OF
FRONT/TROUGH. AN IRREGULAR...ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE ATLC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO A 1022 MB
HIGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N44W TO A WEAK 1020 MB
HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N70W. THERE IS NO LARGE-SCALE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC EXCEPT IN
THE FAR W ATLC WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF 27N W OF 72W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. FURTHER S...MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS MOVING OFF W AFRICA ARE LARGELY SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE N PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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