[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 07 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N10W 5N14W EQ32W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
24W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER TODAY OVER THE W GULF HAVE BEGUN TO DISSIPATE ALTHOUGH
THE CUT-OFF S STREAM LOW OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO
REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 100 KT
ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT W OF 90W
AND W FLOW E OF 90W. AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE E PACIFIC
CONTINUES ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF TO OVER FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA AND A 1022 MB HIGH THAT
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W MAINTAINS
STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO TEXAS AND MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM VERA CRUZ TO
JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE UPPER JET WILL MAINTAIN BROAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY EXPANDING E OVER FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE JET STRENGTHENS TO 130 KT. THIS SHOULD
IGNITE A BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
MODERATE COLD FRONT WHICH EMERGES INTO THE GULF MON NIGHT...THEN
PROGRESSES QUICKLY E EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ BY TUE AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE N
CENTRAL TO E GULF MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTING N OF THE AREA TUE.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAK ATLC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY
SE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO PRODUCING OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER ALL LEVELS ARE PRODUCING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONCE THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO RICO
WEAKENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS MOISTURE VALUES
INCREASE NEAR NW COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

ATLANTIC...
A RAPIDLY MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
993 MB DEVELOPING STORM LOW IS SKIRTING THE N PORTION OF THE W
ATLC WELL E OF BERMUDA NEAR 36N56W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILS
SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N57W TO 24N675W THEN DISSIPATING OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
ALMOST UNDETECTABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE W
ATLC AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY UNFOLDING OVER THE GULF.
E OF 60W...ISOLATED SHOWERS LIE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW N OF
30N BETWEEN 45W-56W. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS
NE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY SE AND APPROACHING A
SECOND...WEAKENING...FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES S
ALONG 32N28W TO A 1010 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N43W
AND A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SW TO NE OF THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W THEN DISSIPATES OVER PUERTO RICO. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN
30W-45W AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 20W-30W. OVER THE E ATLC...A DEEP
LAYERED LONGWAVE TROUGH W OF 25W MOVING INLAND OVER W AFRICA
EXTENDING S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC
IS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N45W. OFFSHORE FLOW
FROM THE DESERTS OF W AFRICA IS ADVECTING AN AREA OF VERY DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WEST TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND FORCING
THE ITCZ AXIS FURTHER SOUTH.

$$
WALLACE


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