[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 07 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N10W 3N17W 3N32W 1N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE
EQUATOR FROM 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC...
A CUT-OFF S STREAM LOW OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO
REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY. MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF INTO
THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 80W. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS
TO 110 KT ACCOMPANIES STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE E PACIFIC CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WITH
CLEARING NOW INLAND OVER MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH
IS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N75W AND IS MAINTAINING
STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO TEXAS AND MEXICO WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. THE UPPER JET IS MAINTAINING BROAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH BROKEN/
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 23N97W ACROSS FLORIDA
TO 28N75W IN THE W ATLC. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING EXPANDING E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THEREAFTER... MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE W AND THE JET STRENGTHENS TO
150 KT. THIS SHOULD IGNITE A BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A MODERATE COLD FRONT WHICH EMERGES INTO
THE GULF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THEN PROGRESSES QUICKLY E
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
VERACRUZ BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAK ATLC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY
SE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS RICO PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF 72W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS MOISTURE
VALUES INCREASE NEAR NW COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A RAPIDLY MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
988 MB DEVELOPING STORM LOW REMAINS ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE
AREA MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 33N51W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILS SW INTO THE AREA ALONG
32N52W TO 23N63W THEN DISSIPATING JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS
PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE W ATLC AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM CURRENTLY UNFOLDING OVER THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
QUICKLY SE AND APPROACHING A SECOND...WEAKENING...FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF THE AZORES S ALONG 32N27W TO
A 1006 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N43W AND A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING SW TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N60W THEN
DISSIPATES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 28W-47W AND N OF
30N BETWEEN 15W-28W. OVER THE E ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED LONGWAVE
TROUGH W OF 20W MOVING INLAND OVER W AFRICA EXTENDING S INTO THE
E TROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 1N32W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE
AREA S OF 25N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE DESERTS OF W AFRICA IS ADVECTING
AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND FORCING THE ITCZ AXIS FURTHER SOUTH.

$$
WALLACE



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