[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 06 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W 2N20W 1N40W 4N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 2N BETWEEN 20W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
TODAY OVER THE W GULF AS YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF S STREAM LOW
PROGRESSES OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO.  A 100 KT +
SUBTROPICAL JET ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING STRONG SW
FLOW ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE E PACIFIC
ACROSS MEXICO. AT THE SFC...A 1022 MB HIGH OVER SE LOUISIANA HAS
ESTABLISHED STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO TEXAS WITH ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING PRODUCING AN AREA OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM CORPUS CHRISTI
NWD TO THE LOUISIANA BORDER.  A SEPARATE...LESS
CONCENTRATED...AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IS BEING PRODUCED
BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL JET WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE UPPER JET WILL MAINTAIN BROAD DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY EXPANDING
EWD OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT.  THEREAFTER...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE UPPER AMPLIFIES AND THE
JET STRENGTHENS TO 150 KT.  THIS SHOULD IGNITE A BAND OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A MODERATE COLD FRONT
WHICH EMERGES INTO THE GULF MON NIGHT THE PROGRESSES QUICKLY EWD
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
VERACRUZ BY TUE AFTERNOON.  CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE N CENTRAL TO E
GULF MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTING N OF THE AREA TUE.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAK ATLC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY
SWD OVER NRN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO PRODUCING OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS PRODUCING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONCE THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA/PUERTO
RICO WEAKENS TONIGHT...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS MOISTURE
VALUES INCREASE NEAR NW COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

ATLANTIC...
A QUICK-MOVING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT 995 MB LOW PRES IS SKIRTING THE N PORTION OF THE W
ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N60W.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILS SWD
INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N55W 25N65W THEN DISSIPATING TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  THE FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED AND ALMOST
UNDETECTABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY W OF 70W. HOWEVER...THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY
UNFOLDING OVER THE GLFMEX. E OF 70W...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
LIE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MORE NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW N OF 30N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY
EWD AND APPROACHING A SECOND... WEAKENING...FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES SWD ALONG 30N30W TO A FRONTAL WAVE
NEAR 29N50W THEN TO PUERTO RICO.  AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W AND N OF 27N
BETWEEN 30W-40W.  OVER THE E ATLC...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED NEAR 5N45W WITH A DEEP LAYERED LONGWAVE TROF MOVING
INLAND OVER W AFRICA.  OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE DESERTS OF W
AFRICA IS ADVECTING AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
WESTWARD TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
RHOME



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