[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN 06 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM A 1007 MB LOW ALONG THE
BURKINA FASO/GHANA BORDER SW TO 2N15W 2N24W 1N33W 4N49W 3N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
13W-24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 31W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 35W-43W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 47W-52W MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE BRAZIL/FRENCH
GUIANA BORDER.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG LONGWAVE TROF AND CUT-OFF LOW OVER AZ AND NW MEXICO IS
REINFORCING BROAD SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER MEXICO WITH THE
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STILL MAINTAINING A STRONG SLY PSN FROM
ABOUT PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO TO E/CNTRL TX. A LARGE PLUME OF
UPPER MOISTURE EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS AND HAS
SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS EWD TO FL. AT THE SFC...A
WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF MONTERREY MEXICO WITH A
TROF EXTENDING NWD INTO S TX. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERRUNNING
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE OVER MOST OF TX
AND NE MEXICO...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EMBEDDED
INLAND OVER THE TX COAST BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI.
OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED FARTHER E AND S
OVER THE GULF FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 92W-98W PRIMARILY FORCED BY
THE MID/UPPER JET. THE E PART OF THE GULF AND FL IS BEING
AFFECTED BY A WEAK YET REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FT.
PIERCE FL NW TO 29N86W. THE FRONT IS ADVECTING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR SWD WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER E OF 87W. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST MON NIGHT AND WILL STALL NEAR
THE FL STRAITS BY WED...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE AREA AS IT MOVES TO THE SE.

CARIBBEAN...
THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN ATLC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY
SWD OVER NRN HISPANIOLA WHILE NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE W NEAR
JAMAICA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY DRY AT THE
MOMENT AND CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK RIDGING OVER THE W PART OF THE
BASIN...SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
CROSSING HISPANIOLA ALONG THE FRONT. THE PRES PATTERN AT 12Z
SUGGESTED THE PRESENCE OF A VERY WEAK SFC TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE ATLC THRU THE GUADELOUPE PASSAGE BUT
THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED WEATHER. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE
NEAR NW COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

ATLANTIC...
A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM IS SKIRTING EWD TO THE N OF
BERMUDA WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N64W
29N70W TO FREEPORT BAHAMAS AND WEST PALM BEACH FL. THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER FL AND A FEW STRATOCU/CUMULUS NW OF THE FRONT OVER THE W
ATLC WATERS. THE SHORTWAVE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ALONG 65W BUT IS MOSTLY N OF THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA.
FARTHER E...THE UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL AS THE
STRONGEST ENERGY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AZORES. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE CNTRL ATLC WATERS...PART OF
WHICH IS BEGINNING TO SURGE TO THE N AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS BENEATH IT. A 1014 MB FRONTAL LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
25N53W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE TO 27N38W CONTINUING AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N29W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW
TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. STATIONARY CLOUDS/LINE OF SHOWERS
S OF THE WARM FRONT ALSO INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A CONVERGENCE
LINE/TROF ALONG 23N50W 26N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE FRONT N
OF 25N BETWEEN 22W-58W. ELSEWHERE...THE TROPICS ARE VERY QUIET
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA SEWD TO
EQ35W AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF MOVING INLAND OVER W AFRICA. DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE DESERTS OF W AFRICA IS PUSHING AN AREA OF
CLOUD-FREE SKIES WWD TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH ONLY A SMALL
PLUME OF DUST NOTED MOVING SW OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA.

$$
BERG


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