[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 03 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N18W 5N41W 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 12W-16W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 2N36W-EQ44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK...COMPLEX SYNOPTIC SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE W GULF. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS MEXICO/TEXAS AND IS
PRODUCING BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE GULF. THIS IS ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ACROSS MEXICO...THE ENTIRE
GULF...AND THE SE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SE TO 27N88W WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE TO A SECOND 1012
MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING NW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE SURFACE
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE E OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK QUICKLY SE TO OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. JET DYNAMICS WILL COME INTO PLAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT
LIKELY MAXIMIZING THE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA AT THAT TIME. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY E OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRING DRY N FLOW IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND W TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
7N55W WITH THE FLOW COVING THE AREA W OF 30W. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NE OF HONDURAS
NEAR 17N82W. PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NW OF THIS BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
E CARIBBEAN...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRODUCING A NOTICEABLE
ABSENCE OF CLOUDINESS AND TRADITIONAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS. IN
FACT...THIS DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH A STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC WEST OF 45W...AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
BETWEEN 30W-45W...AND A DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE E ATLC 200 NM
N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S WELL INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER IS TIED TO THE W ATLC TROUGH WITH A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N52W SW TO HISPANIOLA THEN
DISSIPATING AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY N OF HISPANIOLA. A REINFORCING SURGE/FRONT IS ENTERING
THE AREA ALONG 32N58W SW TO 24N70W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE
S BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS RATHER DRY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR SHOWERS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
TWO FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALONG
THE FRONT AS THE SUPPORTING TROUGH LIFTS NE. OVER THE FAR E
ATLC....A 996 MB GALE LOW IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NW OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N22W. THIS FEATURES CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SE WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA FROM A
1000 MB TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR MADEIRA ISLANDS ACROSS THE E
CANARY ISLANDS TO JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR
16N28W THEN DISSIPATING TO 15N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT N OF 28N TO
INLAND OVER MOROCCO AND W OF THE FRONT TO 19W N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 31N.

$$
WALLACE



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