[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 03 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 5N18W 1N30W 1N37W 3N52W. WIDELY
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK...COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE W GULF
AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FURTHER DEVELOPS. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE W GULF. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE ENTIRE GULF AND
THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE W GULF.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE SE TEXAS
COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE ALONG
28N95W THEN SE TO 26N88W AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NW
OVER S TEXAS TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 28N100W. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK QUICKLY E OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY TAPPING THE MOIST SW
FLOW SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT THEN PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE E GULF AND S FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. JET DYNAMICS WILL COME INTO PLAY TODAY
INTO TONIGHT LIKELY MAXIMIZING THE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA AT THAT TIME.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY E OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRING DRY N FLOW IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND W TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST E OF TRINIDAD WITH THE FLOW
COVING THE AREA W OF 40W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE W ATLC AS THE S EXTENSION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH TRAILS ACROSS THE AREA JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA PRODUCING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/NW HAITI TO HONDURAS. WITH MINIMAL
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST REMAINING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY ONLY BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
BOUNDARY. A SECOND...EVEN WEAKER BOUNDARY HAS DISSIPATED OVER
THE CARIBBEAN NOW THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS BRIDGED ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRODUCING A
NOTICEABLE ABSENCE OF CLOUDINESS AND TRADITIONAL TRADE WIND
SHOWERS. IN FACT...THIS DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH A STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC WEST OF 50W...AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
BETWEEN 30W-50W...AND A DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE E ATLC 200 NM
NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS TIED TO THE W ATLC TROUGH WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N53W SW TO 21N69W THEN
DISSIPATING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/NW
HAITI. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF HISPANIOLA. A REINFORCING
SURGE/FRONT IS ENTERING THE AREA E OF BERMUDA ALONG 32N62W SW TO
25N70W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE S BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THIS
FEATURE IS RATHER DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR SHOWERS
NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TWO FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY THEN
PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LIFT
WILL BE WEAKENING ALONG THE FRONT AS THE SUPPORTING TROUGH LIFT
NE. OVER THE FAR E ATLC....A 996 MB GALE LOW IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N23W. THIS
FEATURES CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE AREA FROM A 1002 MB TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR MADEIRA
ISLANDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 18N26W THEN DISSIPATING TO 16N38W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT N OF 25N
TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND W OF THE FRONT WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N22W NE TO THE TRIPLE POINT LOW.

$$
WALLACE


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