[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 03 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N11W 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 3N50W 2N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N12W 3N15W 2N20W 2N30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1S28W...EQUATOR AT 32W...
EQUATOR AT 36W...1N39W 1N45W 3N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 10N TO
20N EAST OF 130W MOVES ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WINDS RANGING FROM 100 TO 130 KT...ACROSS MEXICO INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND DIRECTION IS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
MEXICO BECOMING WESTERLY AS IT HITS THE GULF WATERS. THIS UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS RIDING ON TOP OF A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHOSE SIGNATURE IN VISIBLE CLOUD IMAGERY IS
COMPLETELY OBSCURED BY ALL THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. WARM FRONT FROM
27N88W TO 28N90W TO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N91W.
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 25N94W. COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N94W TO MEXICO COAST
JUST SOUTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 25.5N97W AND 26N98W.
STATIONARY FRONT 26N98W BEYOND 30N102W. AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
IN THE GULF...MAINLY FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 23N71W NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CUBA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N79W. A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS MARKS THIS
BOUNDARY. CLOUD BUILDUPS ARE SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...POSSIBLY
WITH PRECIPITATION FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W OVER
CUBA. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N69W ACROSS HISPANIOLA
ON A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE...JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA...TO
17N80W TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS BUT NOT QUITE REACHING IT NEAR
16N88W. CLOUD BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION SURROUND
HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE. SIMILAR CLOUD CLUSTERS ARE
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W APPEARING TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TOP
OF IT COVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IN GENERAL IS SEEN IN THIS AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW NOW IS BLOWING ON TOP OF AND ACROSS THE
AREA COVERED BY THE SAME TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY.
ONE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N50W TO 24N60W TO THE EDGE OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N69W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 30N55W TO 27N60W TO 23N71W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING
FROM 23N71W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CUBA TO 20N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A THIN BAND OF
CLOUDS MARKS THE WESTERNMORE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 19N69W 23N60W 28N50W BEYOND 32N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N54W 30N45W BEYOND 32N41W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 25W AND
55W. SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N40W. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN THE FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT AND THE TWO CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONTS. THE MAIN MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N14W...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE 1000 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N18W AND
ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR 32N15W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 32N15W
CENTER TO 30N11W 20N19W TO 16N28W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 16N28W
15N40W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 29N EAST
OF 15W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 13N26W OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 33N14W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net