[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 30 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 2N20W 1N50W 5N80W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W.  A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 26N90W AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W THEN EXTENDS W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SIERRA MADRES MOUNTAINS ALONG 25N100W 30N104W.  A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO N FLORIDA TO BEYOND 31N81W.  BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW
CENTER FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 80W-86W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA...
TEXAS...AND MEXICO N OF 23N AND W OF 91W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS
ALONG 94W N OF 20N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 19N60W 19N70W
PUSHING S.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 77W...AND OVER HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS MOVING WSW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N41W TO
28N43W 20N55W  19N60W TO  HISPANIOLA.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
VERY LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS
BEHIND THE FRONT TO WELL BEYOND 31N...AND W TO 77W.  A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
27N42W 17N51W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N21W TO 15N37W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT DOMINATES
THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 45W AND FLORIDA WITH A ROUGH
AXIS ALONG 57W.  A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 37W N OF 20N.  A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER TROUGH IS FROM THE CAPE VERDES TO 31N19W.  HIGH CLOUDS
ABOUND NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 20N.
DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS... A STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH NEAR 5S34W
RIDGES NW TO 4N50W THEN WNW TO 8N70W AND CONTROLS THE ENTIRE
REGION W OF 30W.  BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 15N W OF 30W.
STRONG MID/UPPER DRY AIR IS PRESENT BETWEEN 10N-20N W OF THE
CAPE VERDES WITH FEW LOW CLOUD-BASED SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA



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