[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN 30 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 1N20W 1N50W 5N80W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 16W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN...LOW IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29N85W. A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 26N96W AND CONTINUES OVER MEXICO AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 29N104W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM
THE LOW TO N FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE AND THEN CONTINUES NORTH
OF THE AREA ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO BEYOND THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BOARDER.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE MEXICO/TEXAS BOARDER
N OF 23N AND W OF 91W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER DISCUSSIONS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO E OVER THE LEEWARD ISLAND TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER
MUCH OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS FROM WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SOUTH TO 30N41W
AND CONTINUES SW TO HISPANIOLA.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG 25N41W 17N51W. THE COLD
FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT
DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W AND FLORIDA
WITH A ROUGH AXIS ALONG 57W. A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CAPE VERDES TO 31N19W.  DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...
STRONG MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT
BETWEEN 10N-20N W OF THE CAPE VERDES.

$$
JP/EH




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