[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 30 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N10W 1N20W 1N50W 4N80W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQ-2N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W.  A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 26N90W AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W THEN EXTENDS W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SIERRA MADRES MOUNTAINS ALONG 25N100W 30N104W.  A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW
CENTER FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA...
TEXAS...AND MEXICO N OF 23N AND W OF 91W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS
ALONG 94W N OF 20N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N60W
19N70W 20N74W PUSHING S.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 77W...AND OVER HONDURAS
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS MOVING WSW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LIES FROM
31N44W TO 24N50W TO 20N60W TO HISPANIOLA.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
A VERY LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS
BEHIND THE FRONT TO WELL BEYOND 31N...AND W TO 77W.  A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
30N43W 23N45W 15N55W.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MOROCCO
NEAR 31N5W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE E ATLANTIC ALONG
25N20W 15N44W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT DOMINATES THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W AND FLORIDA WITH A ROUGH AXIS ALONG
57W.  THE UPPER PATTERN HAS A SHORTER WAVELENGTH IN THE E ATLC
WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 40W N OF 20N WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
TROUGH FROM THE W CAPE VERDES TO 31N19W.  HIGH CLOUDS ABOUND
NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 20N.  DEEPER
INTO THE TROPICS... A STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH NEAR 3S33W RIDGES NW
TO 4N52W THEN WNW TO 8N70W AND CONTROLS THE ENTIRE REGION W OF
30W.  BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 15N W OF 30W.  STRONG
MID/UPPER DRY AIR IS PRESENT BETWEEN 10N-20N W OF THE CAPE
VERDES WITH FEW LOW CLOUD-BASED SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net