[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 29 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 1N30W 2N50W 5N80W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 15W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1017 MB LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 26N94W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO
MEXICO ALONG 25N98W 29N103W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS 60 NM S OF FRONTS.  A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOUISIANA LOW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVERS THE NE
GULF N OF THE FRONT.  A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE NE GULF
IS PRODUCING A FETCH OF E-SE WINDS 25-30 KT BETWEEN FLORIDA AND
LOUISIANA N OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE THE NE GULF N OF
27N AND E OF 89W WHERE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
LEAVING LATE SUN BUT THEN ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE FEATURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO THE TEXAS COAST BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N MOVING SLOWLY W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  A RIDGE AXIS S OF 10N OVER
INLAND SOUTH AMERICA.  THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALSO DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A TWO SHORTWAVES
ASSISTING A FRONT AND A TROUGH.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N52W TO 25N60W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.  BROKEN LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE E ATLC FROM 31N27W TO 25N35W TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR
25N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN
30W-52W.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 27W N OF 24N.  A LARGER
TROUGH IS N OF 22N E OF 20W.   FURTHER SOUTH...BETWEEN
10N-20N...FLAT ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE COAST OF
SENEGAL WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG A PORTION OF THE ITCZ.

$$
FORMOSA



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