[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 29 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 2N50W 5N80W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 15W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1016 MB LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO AT 23N98W THE CONTINUES
AS A STATIONARY FRONT NW TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 29N101W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS 60
NM S OF FRONT.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOUISIANA
LOW TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVERS THE NE GULF N OF THE FRONT.  A TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT OVER THE NE GULF IS PRODUCING A FETCH OF E-SE WINDS
25-30 KT BETWEEN FLORIDA AND LOUISIANA N OF THE FRONT.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT
OVER THE THE NE GULF N OF 27N AND E OF 89W WHERE THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... LEAVING LATE SUN BUT THEN ANOTHER
MID-LATITUDE FEATURE WILL BRING CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO THE TEXAS
COAST BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N MOVING SLOWLY W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  A RIDGE AXIS S OF 10N OVER
INLAND
SOUTH AMERICA.  THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE AREA IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO THE RULE FOR THE ATLC WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVES ASSISTING A FRONT AND A TROUGH.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N53W TO 27N60W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W THEN WNW TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W.  BROKEN LOW/MIDDLE
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC FROM 31N27W TO 24N34W TO A WEAK 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 23N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-27N
BETWEEN 30W-52W.  AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 27W N OF
24N WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG 41W N OF 22N.  COMBINED
THEY BASICALLY FORM A LARGE TROUGH IN THE REGION WITH FLAT ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AS WELL AS PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF
MID/UPPER DRY AIR.   WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
E ATLC NEAR 23N16W OVER NW SAHARA ENDING NEAR 24N23W.  THE ZONAL
FLOW HAS SQUASHED MOST ITCZ CONVECTION WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALONG
15W S OF SENEGAL ENHANCING A FEW TSTMS.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net