[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT 29 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 1N30W 4N50W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM ON-5N BETWEEN 24W-30W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
35W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
GULF S OF 28N AND W OF 88W. ELSEWHERE...LOW PRESSURE FROM
EARLIER TODAY REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
30N90W AND WILL  CONTINUE TO WEAKENED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO THE MEXICO/TEXAS BOARDER.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. E OF
THE LOW... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOUISIANA
COAST TO NEAR 29N87W TRANSITIONING TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND
CONTINUING SOUTH TO NEAR 26N85W...FINALLY TRANSITIONING TO A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER CUBA AND
CONTINUING E INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUD COVER EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF N OF THE FRONT
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 27N AND E OF 89W
WHERE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SUPPRESSING MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION. POCKETS OF SHALLOW TOPED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 65W-75W ARE NOTED ON RADAR BUT REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED.
ELSEWHERE...  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE OVER
THE WEST INDIES AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN FOLLOWED BY LARGE SWELLS
ESPECIALLY IN PASSAGES AND CHANNELS.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE ATLC ATLANTIC. LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N49W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N50W AND
CONTINUING SW OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.  BROKEN LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED/ WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A
WEAK SURFACE THROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N28W SW TO 25N33W.    FURTHER
SOUTH...BETWEEN 10N-20N...FLAT ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR.

$$
JP/JA




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