[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280519
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 28 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N27W 4N41W 2N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF
12W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA AND FROM 36W-41W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
12W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO THE N GULF EXTENDS
FROM S FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA TO THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN CORPUS
CHRISTI AND HOUSTON AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE E
UNITED STATES. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG DOWN CONTINENTAL
AIR OVER MEXICO INTO THE W GULF. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NW
GULF...N OF FRONT...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E OFF THE
TEXAS COAST. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF AS THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES QUICKLY E OVER THE S UNITED STATES DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF WILL EXPAND E ALONG THE N GULF
COAST...N OF 26N...REACHING FLORIDA LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN...
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH WEAK RIDGING TO EITHER SIDE.
CONFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
BLANKET THE AREA CREATING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. AS
SUCH...MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REMAINS TIED TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS W TO THE SW TIP OF
HAITI THEN SW OVER JAMAICA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COSTA
RICA/PANAMA BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE N FLOW WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
WINDWARD FACING SLOPES FROM W PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE AREA OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE N PORTION OF AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 25N WITH
SEVERAL MID-LATITUDE DISTURBANCES N OF 25N SKIRTING THE AREA.
FROM WEST TO EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC ALONG
62W IS KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N60W TO NE FLORIDA. A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH
IS LOCATED JUST N OF PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 23N65W.
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAK BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE EXISTS
ALONG 47W WITH A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N43W. DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS LIMITING CLOUDINESS TO SOME LEFT OVER
POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS. OVER THE E ATLC...DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE
AREA ALONG 32N29W 23N38W THEN STATIONARY TO 21N46W AND
DISSIPATING TO NEAR 25N55W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT
N OF 25N. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF 35W WITH LITTLE PUSH TO EXTEND IT
FURTHER E. VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE IS PRODUCING
A NOTICEABLE LACK OF CLOUDINESS OVER THIS AREA.

$$
WALLACE


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