[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 27 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W 4N50W 1N55W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM
30W-40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION FROM ED
TO 6N BETWEEN 50W-70W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE N GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS SWD OVER THE E UNITED STATES. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
ACROSS CNTRL FLORIDA NEAR ORLANDO TO 27N85W WHERE IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY TO A DEVELOPING 1013 MB LOW OVER S TEXAS. THE
LOW IS BEGINNING TO DRAG DOWN CONTINENTAL AIR OVER MEXICO
RESULTING IN A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRES N OF 26N. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NW GLFMEX...N OF
FRONT...AS A POTENT S STREAM TROUGH EJECTS EWD FROM THE SW
UNITED STATES.  THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE N PORTION OF THE GLFMEX AS THE
SHORTWAVE RACES QUICKLY EWD OVER THE S UNITED STATES DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER THE NW GULF WILL EXPAND EWD ALONG THE N GULF COAST...N OF
26N...REACHING FLORIDA LATE FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH WEAK RIDGING
TO EITHER SIDE. CONFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE AREA CREATING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REMAINS TIED TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG A REMNANT
FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS WNW TO THE SW
TIP OF HAITI THEN SW OVER JAMAICA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE
COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE NLY FLOW WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE AREA OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE REMNANT
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
BEFORE ANOTHER ATLANTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE N PORTION OF
AREA SAT NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 25N WITH
SEVERAL MID-LATITUDE DISTURBANCES N OF 25N SKIRTING THE AREA.
FROM WEST TO EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
ALONG 65W IS KICKING OFF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N60W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAK BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE
EXISTS ALONG 45W WITH A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N45W. DRY
AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS LIMITING CLOUDINESS TO SOME LEFT
OVER POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS.  OVER THE E ATLC...A
COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N28W 25N35W THEN
STATIONARY  TO 22N55W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF FRONT S
OF 25N.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY IS WEAKENING WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMING DETACHED AND BEGINNING TO MOVE W/NW IN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
AREA OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE FAR E ATLC SE OF A LINE FROM W
SAHARA TO 8N35W.  VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE IS
PRODUCING A NOTICEABLE LACK OF CLOUDINESS OVER THIS AREA.

$$
RHOME


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