[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 28 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N25W 3N45W 2N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF AXIS E
OF 15W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 38W-42W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO THE N GULF YESTERDAY NOW
EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW OVER S TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI N
ALONG 28N95W AS A WARM FRONT THEN SW TO 26N85W OFF THE S FLORIDA
COAST. STRONG HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM OVER THE E
UNITED STATES OVER THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC. SURFACE LOW AND
ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRAG DOWN CONTINENTAL AIR
OVER MEXICO INTO THE W GULF AS THE LOW MOVES NE. A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDS FROM E TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON INTO THE W GULF TO 27N95W
AHEAD OF THIS LOW. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVERS THE NW GULF...N OF FRONT...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES E OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE NW
PORTION OF THE GULF AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES QUICKLY E
OVER THE S UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF WILL
EXPAND E ALONG THE N GULF COAST...N OF 25N...REACHING FLORIDA
LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN...
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
WITH WEAK RIDGING TO EITHER SIDE. CONFLUENT FLOW AND
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE AREA
CREATING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT...IF ANY...WEATHER REMAINS TIED TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WHAT WAS THE REMNANT
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS W TO THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS THEN SW OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE N FLOW WEST OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THIS REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE ATLC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE N PORTION OF AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 25N WITH
SEVERAL MID-LATITUDE DISTURBANCES N OF 25N SKIRTING THE AREA.
FROM WEST TO EAST...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC ALONG
60W WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N58W ACROSS
ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA THEN NW
TO 28N84W IN THE W GULF. A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
FLORIDA BAY NEAR 25N82W AND A SECOND WEAKER 1019 MB HIGH IS IN
THE W ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
N OF 29N FROM 51W-57W AS THIS FRONT RACES E. OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A WEAK BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE EXISTS ALONG 46W WITH A
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N41W. DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
IS LIMITING CLOUDINESS. OVER THE E ATLC...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N28W
SW TO 22N38W THEN STATIONARY TO 22N48W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR 26N55W. THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N. AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF 35W BUT APPEARS
TO BE DIMINISHING.

$$
WALLACE


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