[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 25 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 8N14W 4N20W 2N35W S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA E OF 5W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. WIDELY
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N
TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF E OF 80W WITH
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGH HAS FORMED ALONG COASTAL MEXICO/TEXAS AND IS PRODUCING
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COAST FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER. ELSEWHERE... STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 1025 MB
HIGH LOCATED S OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA WHICH CONTINUES TO BUILD
S AND E. AS A RESULT...WIND AND SEAS ARE NOW WELL BELOW GALE AND
SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
MUCH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THIS WILL MAINTAIN ANOTHER
24-36 HOURS OF COOLER/DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM
VENEZUELA NW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. THE BASE OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC HAS PRODUCED A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE E OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THEN DISSIPATES TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE INCREASING DYNAMICS/LIFT AHEAD OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THIS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 125/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO OVER NE
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
ATLC WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES S ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE GREAT ANTILLES...
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-48W...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE E ATLC E OF 35W. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FOCUSED
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 32N50W TO BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF
FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT S OF
27N ARE PRIMARILY THE FOCUS OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 26N53W SW ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT ESPECIALLY N OF 27N. OVER THE E
ATLC...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LOW
SWEEPING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N16W SW TO 12N31W.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE E ATLC...EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LARGE AREA OF AFRICA DUST S OF 22N E OF 32W.

$$
WALLACE




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