[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 25 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N32W 5N48W 3N60W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 2.5N E OF 3W TO ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY HAS COMPLETELY CLEARED THE
GULF AND FLORIDA LEAVING THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER POST-FRONTAL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A FIELD OF OPEN CELLULAR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE S
GULF BUT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH HAS FORMED ALONG COASTAL MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE COAST FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO TAMPICO. ELSEWHERE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA WHICH HAS BUILT S FROM THE SE UNITED
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...WIND AND SEAS ARE
NOW TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE N HALF OF THE GULF AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. THE SURFACE HIGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THUS MAINTAINING
ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS OF COOLER/DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM
VENEZUELA NW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE BASE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC HAS PRODUCED A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE NEAR E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM OVER HISPANIOLA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
FRONT HAS LITTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SO ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DYNAMICS/LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS TO
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THIS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 17N TO OVER NE
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA BETWEEN 63W-75W. WHILE THE UPPER
DYNAMICS PRODUCING THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TRANSITION E
TONIGHT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE ATLC TROUGH...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
ATLC WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES S ACROSS BERMUDA AND THE S BAHAMAS TO THE
GREAT ANTILLES...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-50W...
AND A TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO
14N30W. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FOCUSED OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
32N53W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT S OF 25N. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT ESPECIALLY N OF 25N.
OVER THE E ATLC...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
MID/UPPER LOW W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N19W SW TO 14N30W.
DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N24W TO 24N32W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
200 NM E OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE E ATLC...EARLIER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE AREA OF AFRICA DUST E
OF 30W. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE ITCZ IS MOST ACTIVE BETWEEN
13W-30W.

$$
WALLACE



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