[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 25 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N0 6N10W 1N26W 3N40W 2N45W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN A CLUSTER S OF THE IVORY
COAST/GHANA COASTLINE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 0-5W. ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-35W. THE AXIS IS
ILL-DEFINED W OF 45W BUT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE EXTENDS N OF
THE AMAZON DELTA AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM EQ-9N BETWEEN 45W-52W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS UP TO 100 NM N OF THE SURINAME COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG HIGH PRES AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE S
AND E AND IS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL GULF NEAR 26N90W WITH PRES
OF 1025 MB. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS
THRU THE LOW TO NE/N MEXICO WITH A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE SPARSE LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD. RETURN
FLOW IS RIDING UP THE W SIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG THE TX COAST WITH
A WEAK 1019 MB LOW/TROF LOCATED E OF CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 28N96W.
ONLY A NARROW 90 NM WIDE BAND OF STRATUS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...40 NM OFF THE TX COAST BUT NEARING SW LA. WEAK SPLIT
FLOW IS OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY RIDING ATOP A TROF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
CONFLUENCE E OF THE SPLIT IS PRODUCING STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE...RESULTING IN A STRONGER SFC HIGH. BROKEN LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
ADJACENT MEXICAN COAST S OF CABO ROJO MOSTLY DUE TO NE FLOW
CONVERGING NEAR THE MTNS.

CARIBBEAN...
SFC HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INCHING SEWD INTO THE W
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS W OF 75W IS
ERODING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH
DRIZZLE REMAIN OVER CNTRL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO PANAMA AS
THE NLY FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER E...AN ATLC
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO ABOUT 45 NM S OF PUERTO RICO...THEN TO
14N75W AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. IN ADDITION...A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF EXTENDS FROM ARUBA NEWD PAST GUADELOUPE. A FEW
CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN LOCATED NEAR ARUBA AND LAKE
MARACAIBO EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT NOW ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 61W-74W. SAN JUAN
RADAR INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS SW OF ST. CROIX ARE
LIGHT AND MOVING VERY LITTLE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS LARGELY
UNIMPRESSIVE AS BROAD SWLY FLOW ADVECTS DRIER AIR FROM W TO E
OVER THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE W ATLC WATERS IS PROGRESSING EWD
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLC ALONG 60W AND IS ALLOWING SFC
HIGH PRES TO BUILD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EWD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT STILL EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF
ALONG 32N47W 27N50W TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS N OF 27N WITHIN 180
NM E OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS UP
TO 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS WITHIN 45
NM OF THE FRONT TO THE S. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
IS PRODUCING A BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE WATERS N OF 22N
WWD TO ABOUT 77W. FARTHER E...HIGH AMPLITUDE FEATURES DOMINATE
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH A LARGE RIDGE ALONG 17N45W 32N37W AND
COMPENSATING TROF STRETCHING FROM THE STRAITS OF GIBRALTAR PAST
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 4N29W. A BROAD 1024 MB SFC HIGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE AREA NEAR 30N29W AND IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. A PLUME OF DUST HAS BEEN ADVECTED OFF THE AFRICAN
CONTINENT...GENERALLY EXTENDING SE OF A LINE 32N19W 10N40W 3N50W
ON THE S SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR HAS CHOKED
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ EXCEPT FOR A WEAKENING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING W OFF THE IVORY COAST/GHANA COAST.

$$
BERG





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