[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 17 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N0 4N6W 2N20W 2N35W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR TO 2S50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR 4N BETWEEN 10W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO  W ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E UNITED STATES...GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE W ATLC W OF 72W. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC
NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND E CUBA
NEAR 76W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS JAMAICA TO 13N81W THEN W TO
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA BEYOND 13N85W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC AND CONFLUENCE
HAS PRODUCED VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E HALF OF THE GULF
INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC W OF 77W. COLDER AIR
WITH TEMPS OF 40S AND 50S REACHES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO S FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
S...BECOMING THICKER WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS S
MEXICO DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W
OF 62W IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/
HISPANIOLA TO BERMUDA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SHOWERS MOVING IN
ALONG THE EASTERLY TRADES.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD S PAST THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH STRONG N WINDS ADVECTING SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS...BECOMING OVERCAST WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TO OVER COSTA RICA. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS OUT OF A RIDGE
LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THEN SHOOTS
ALMOST DUE E ACROSS THE BASIN WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE.
IN FACT...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND THERE IS LITTLE
ACTIVE WEATHER E OF 75W.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS TILTED NW/SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
28N60W 19N55W AND IS PRODUCING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 50W-59W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA W OF THE AZORES WITH A
RIDGE POKING S ALONG 32N40W 25N36W. TO THE S...A 80-100 KT UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TO N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS ADVECTING A LARGE PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE E TO OVER AFRICA...GENERALLY S OF 20N. MORE
IMPORTANTLY HOWEVER...IS A DEEP-LAYERED LOW CENTERED W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N21W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING E
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N18W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
WESTWARD ALONG 22N24W TO 25N32W. WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERS THE AREA
E AND N OF THE LOW FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 14W-23W AND HAS BEEN
ROTATING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

$$
WALLACE



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