[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 17 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10 4N20W 2N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
TO 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
OF A LINE 8N53W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 13W-17W AND S OF 5N ACROSS THE EQUATOR
FROM 18W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO  W ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES W OF 95W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE E UNITED STATES...E GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE W ATLC W OF
68W. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING S ACROSS
THE SOUTH/CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND E CUBA NEAR 20N75W INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN ACROSS E JAMAICA TO 12N80W THEN W TO INLAND OVER S
NICARAGUA TO BEYOND 12N85W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA AND IS NOW IN THE W ATLC WITH
CONFLUENCE PRODUCING VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE GULF INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W.
COLDER AIR WITH TEMPS OF 40S AND 50S OVER ALL OF S FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE...BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE S...BECOMING THICKER WITH PATCHES OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS S MEXICO DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 62W IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE HISPANIOLA TO BERMUDA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
MOVING IN ALONG THE EASTERLY TRADES.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD S PAST THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH STRONG N WINDS ADVECTING SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS...BECOMING OVERCAST WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TO OVER COSTA RICA. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS OUT OF A RIDGE
LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THEN SHOOTS
ALMOST DUE E ACROSS THE BASIN WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE.
IN FACT...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND THERE IS LITTLE
ACTIVE WEATHER E OF 75W.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TILTED NW/SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N58W TO 22N52W AND IS PRODUCING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
50W-58W. LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA W
OF THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING S ALONG 32N40W 24N38W. TO
THE S...A 80-110 KT UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM
JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
IS ADVECTING A LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE E TO OVER
AFRICA...GENERALLY S OF 20N. MORE IMPORTANTLY HOWEVER...IS A
DEEP-LAYERED LOW CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N22W
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING E TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
28N17W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SW 22N20W THEN W ALONG
20N25W TO 21N32W. WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERS THE AREA MOSTLY E OF
THE LOW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 14W-20W AND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS E AND N OF THE LOW FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN
20W-25W.

$$
WALLACE




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