[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 16 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N0 2N15W 4N26W 4N38W 8.5N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
12W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 19W-30W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 30W-36W. NUMEROUS MODERATE FROM 8N-11.5N BETWEEN
50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SECOND WAVE OF STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND IS FINALLY BRINGING DOWN A COLDER POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS...ALBEIT A COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NOT ONLY IS THE AIR COOLER BUT IT IS ALSO MUCH DRIER AS
EXEMPLIFIED BY THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU DECK WITHIN ABOUT 160
NM OF THE N GULF COAST. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS FLORIDA AND CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS...WITH
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION LAYER HOVERING AROUND 750/800 MB.
OTHERWISE...ALL CLOUDINESS IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE S...BECOMING
THICKER WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SRN MEXICO DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

WEST ATLANTIC...
LOW PRES IS DEEPENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT SWD ALONG 32N73W TO ELEUTHERA AND GREAT
EXUMA ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS THEN TO E CUBA. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT
PATTERN N OF THE BAHAMAS WHICH IS PRODUCING A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 23N UP TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER FLORIDA ARE QUICKLY RACING DOWN THE PENINSULA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW AND SHOULD TOTALLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W IS DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BERMUDA WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS MOVING IN ALONG THE EASTERLY TRADES.

CARIBBEAN...
THE W ATLC COLD FRONT CONTINUES S ACROSS E CUBA TO THE WRN TIP
OF JAMAICA THEN EXTENDS INLAND OVER NE NICARAGUA...HANGING UP
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG HIGH PRES HAS BUILT SEWD PAST THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
STRONG NLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS...BECOMING OVERCAST WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND INLAND. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS OUT OF A
RIDGE LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC SIDE OF CNTRL AMERICA AND THEN
SHOOTS ALMOST DUE E ACROSS THE BASIN WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE
MOISTURE. IN FACT...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND THERE IS
LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER E OF 78W.

CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...
A MID-LEVEL TROF IS TILTED NW/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG
26N60W 19N50W AND IS PRODUCING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 50W-61W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA W OF THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE
POKING SWD ALONG 32N41W 26N36W AND THIS IS PRODUCING AN AXIS OF
STRETCHING DEFORMATION FROM 30N53W SE TO 22N34W. TO THE S...A
70-90 KT UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS ADVECTING A
LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EWD TOWARDS AFRICA...GENERALLY
S OF 20N. OF MORE IMPORT HOWEVER IS A DEEP-LAYERED LOW CENTERED
W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N21W WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
CURLING WWD ALONG 26N20W 24N26W 30N40W. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE
STARTING THE OCCLUSION PROCESS AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS ON ITS SRN
SIDE AND THE FRONT BECOMES ORIENTED WITHIN A THERMAL RIDGE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS LOCATED NE OF THE LOW FROM
26N-32N BETWEEN 16W-21W AND HAS BEEN ROTATING ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE ISLANDS OF LA PALMA
AND HIERRO. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 21W-25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK...POSSIBLE BECOMING HEAVIER BEGINNING WED WHEN THE SYSTEM
TAPS THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE TO ITS SW. HOWEVER...
THE EXACT POSITION THE THE LOW WILL BE CRITICAL SINCE EVEN TODAY
ONLY THE WESTERNMOST ISLANDS RECEIVED RAIN WHILE THOSE TO THE
EAST ONLY SAW CLOUDY/HAZY SKIES.

$$
BERG



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