[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 12 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
4N35W TO 8N44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 10N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 30W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES INTO THE NW ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
SECOND SHORTWAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER E TEXAS INTO THE NW
GULF. THIS IS PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR COVERING THE AREA
FROM MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1027
MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N67W AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING W TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND W TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 64W FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO 22N
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 50W-85W. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE
W TROPICAL ATLC AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER W PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE W HALF OF THE
ATLC WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR N OF 22N W OF 55W.
AT THE SURFACE...TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WITH ONE EXTENDING
ALONG 54W FROM 18N-27N AND A SECOND ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO
RICO TO 27N. DUE TO THE DRY AIR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING
PRODUCED BY THESE SURFACE TROUGHS. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS
THE E HALF OF THE ATLC FROM 55W TO JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND
THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 30W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL
LEVELS COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N-23N E OF 40W TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH
OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SW TO 27N40W.

$$
WALLACE


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