[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 12 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
27W-40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM THE EQ1W-3N24W-10N44W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES AND NW ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N72W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM W TENNESSEE OVER E LOUISIANA TO THE N GULF
COAST. THIS FLOW IS PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR COVERING THE
AREA FROM MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM E TEXAS TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE W
ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND W TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 64W FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO 22N
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 45W-85W. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE
W TROPICAL ATLC AND PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN A 90/120 NM RADIUS OF
11.5N81.5W  AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
15N FROM 62W-75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER
HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE W HALF OF THE
ATLC WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR N OF 20N W OF 45W.
AT THE SURFACE...TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE EXTENDING ALONG
56W/57W FROM 17N-28N AND A SECOND ALONG 67W/68W FROM HISPANIOLA
TO 27N. DUE TO THE DRY AIR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING
GENERATED BY THESE SURFACE TROUGHS. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE E HALF OF THE ATLC FROM 45W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA
AND THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 25W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT
ALL LEVELS COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N-22N E OF 40W TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SW TO
29N30W.

$$
WALLACE



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