[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE 11 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 1N10W 2N20W 3N50W 4N80W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 26W-31W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 35W-40W...
AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N67W.  A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA AND THE NE TEXAS COAST.  THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT...S-SE WINDS WITH NO
CONVECTION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL 50-70 KT WINDS PREVAIL
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK SURFACE TRADEWINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS A
BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  A 50-60
KT WIND MAXIMA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
LINE 10N82W 16N70W 14N60W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD
DOMINATES THE AREA OBSCURING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS BELOW.  THE
NW CARIBBEAN HAS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N82W.  VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF THE LINE FROM E HONDURAS TO W HAITI
ALONG 15N83W 20N73W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N67W.  TWO SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N65W 19N65W...AND
ALONG 27N52W 19N53W.  INVERTED-V  LOW LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN WITH EACH TROUGH.  A 1032 MB
HIGH IS OVER PORTUGAL NEAR 37N8W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW
TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N44W.  IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 50W-60W MOVING WEST.  A LARGER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 14N-32N BETWEEN
35W-60W MOVING WEST.  AN OUTBURST OF SAHARA DUST IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 50W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W WITH A
PATCH OF MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND N OF THE LINE 27N80W
30N70W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-20W
PRODUCING NO INCLEMENT WEATHER.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
W AFRICA NEAR 22N12W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 13N-30N BETWEEN
5W-20W.

$$
FORMOSA



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