[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 11 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N1W 1N1W 2N10W 3N20W 3N30W 3N40W 4N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 36W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS IN SMALLER CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 41W AND 46W...FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W...AND
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N60W TO AN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N67W TO
30N79W AND 30N91W IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ANOTHER BRANCH
OF A RIDGE GOES FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF NEAR 21N98W. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND
FLOW IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W NOW...MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A WEAKENING
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N60W TO 22N70W. A SHEAR
AXIS/WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N60W TO 22N70W...CURVING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
19N81W...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROAD AND EASILY
DISTINGUISHABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
SOUTH OF 12N86W 16N80W 21N70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS NORTH OF THIS LINE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THIS SAME LINE.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND
72W JUST NORTH OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ARUBA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 79W AND LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA EVENTUALLY FLATTENS
OUT AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IN NORTHERN ALGERIA TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IN NORTHERN
MOROCCO...TO CENTRAL MOROCCO...TO 18N18W ALONG THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA...TO 18N35W TO 20N44W TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 19N51W TO 22N60W. A SHEAR AXIS/WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
22N60W TO 22N70W...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N81W...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N51W 26N52W 21N53W...SOMEWHAT IN THE
AREA OF THE WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 19N51W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 26N64W TO 24N65W
TO 23N65W. AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 33N17W NEAR
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 30N26W TO 28N40W 20N48W.
BEYOND 33N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF
20N WEST OF 50W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH...MOSTLY NORTH OF
30N...REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 30N35W. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO REACHES ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT NEAR 33N44W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net