[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 10 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 2N1W 3N30W 3N50W 6N80W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 13W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N76W.  BROAD SURFACE
RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WARM EASTERLY FLOW.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM 20N100W TO
BEYOND LOUISIANA AT 31N90W.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS W OF
THE RIDGE AXIS COVERING ALL OF TEXAS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF
THE RIDGE AXIS COVERING MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK SURFACE TRADEWINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY S OF 19N.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS A 50-60 KT WIND MAXIMA IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION...TOWARDS THE
EAST...WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LINE 13N83W 16N70W 14N60W.  BROKEN
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD DOMINATES THE AREA OBSCURING THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BELOW.  THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N76W.  A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 32N38W 27N50W 26N55W.  A
1035 MB HIGH IS OVER SPAIN NEAR 39N5W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N26W.  IN THE TROPICS...AN
AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 52W-61W MOVING WEST.  A
LARGER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 13N-32N BETWEEN 30W-60W MOVING WEST.  AN OUTBURST OF SAHARA
DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 45W MOVING W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 70W-80W IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N56W.  DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING ENHANCED SHOWERS.  A BAND OF MOISTURE COVERS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 15N FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO W
AFRICA WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW.  TWO OTHER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS ARE OVER W AFRICA NEAR 21N15W AND 34N3W PRODUCING
NO INCLEMENT WEATHER.

$$
FORMOSA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net