[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 10 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N1W 3N10W 4N20W 4N30W 4N40W 3N56W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 6N42W 6N25W 5N17W 1N1W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
SHEARING THE TOPS OF SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
30N68W TO 29N78W TO AN 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
31N86W IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N91W TO SOUTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 10/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...
MOVING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND ALL OF TEXAS
AND THE UNITED STATES MIDWEST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF WATERS. MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FLOW IS
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA WHICH IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WITH THE RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N61W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. A SHEAR LINE
CONTINUES FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI AND
JAMAICA...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF THIS SHEAR LINE...WITH
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF
HONDURAS TO CUBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH
OF THE SHEAR LINE BRINGING WITH IT CLOUDINESS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W JUST NORTH OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
AND ARUBA. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA EVENTUALLY FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES ZONAL IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER IN
NORTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 32N5W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 23N18W JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN MOROCCO COAST...TO
20N33W AND 20N47W...WITH A SHEAR LINE/TROUGH TO A THIRD
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 20N61W IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DISSIPATING SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT
THROUGH 32N37W TO 27N46W TO 25N56W. A SECOND SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA...STATIONARY
ALONG 32N61W 32N70W BEYOND 33N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS ZONAL FROM 30N TO AT LEAST 32N ACCORDING TO THE 10/1500 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
ALSO IS IN PLACE IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EVERYWHERE NORTH
OF 20N WEST OF 50W. ZONAL FLOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AS IT
FLATTENS OUT FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND HEADS EASTWARD.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net