[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 10 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 5N30W 4N44W 3N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE
EQUATOR E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 7N TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR FROM
10W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED  MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
7N TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR FROM 28W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF THUS LIMITING HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF
FOG AND LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED ALONG THE
N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER S ALABAMA WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING W TO OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. BROAD RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS BUILDING INTO THE W
GULF W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 20N63W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THEN SW
INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER JAMAICA AND HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR
14N86W. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC WHICH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THIS TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS ALSO GENERATING OVERCAST SKIES WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM W
VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN... EXTREMELY
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE
AREA FROM N OF 15N W OF HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC
AND IN SW ATLC N OF 27N W OF 60W TO OVER THE E UNITED STATES.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION JUST S OF BERMUDA
EXTENDING W TO 31N70W WHERE IT CONTINUES TO THE GEORGIA COAST
NEAR 32N81W AS A STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 26N50W NE TO BEYOND
32N37W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER MOROCCO SW JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 25N20W TO A BASE NEAR 18N28W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS COVERS THIS AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W
EXTENDING SW TO 27N57W. THESE FEATURES SEPARATE TWO AREAS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT COVER THE E AND W ATLC.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC
WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA S OF 18N E
OF 60W. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADE FLOW DOMINATES THE SAME
AREA THUS PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY E OF 40W.

$$
WALLACE



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