[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 10 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG EQ1W 1N10W 1N30W 2N38W 2N50W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
6N17W-4N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE EQUATOR E OF 9W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 7N TO
ACROSS THE EQUATOR FROM 18W-38W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 9W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER SE ALABAMA
WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. BROAD RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER W MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
20N64W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING WSW JUST S OF JAMAICA TO
OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING TROPICAL UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
AND ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THIS
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO GENERATING OVERCAST SKIES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM W VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
EXTREMELY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
COVERS THE AREA FROM N OF 17N W OF HISPANIOLA AND N OF 14N W OF
80W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC
AND IN SW ATLC N OF 27N W OF 65W TO OVER THE E UNITED STATES.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA EXTENDING
W TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 26N54W NE TO
BEYOND 32N42W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER MOROCCO SW ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 27N21W TO A BASE NEAR 20N29W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS COVERS THIS AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N39W EXTENDING SW TO 31N43W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N36W 27N46W. THESE FEATURES SEPARATE TWO AREAS OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE THAT COVER THE E AND W ATLC.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC
WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA S OF 20N E
OF 60W. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADE FLOW DOMINATES THE SAME
AREA THUS PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY E OF 40W.

$$
WALLACE


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