[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 09 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG EQ1W 1N10W 2N20W 1N30W 2N40W 1N50W 5N80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 6N BETWEEN 17W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IS ALL
THAT REMAINS FROM A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT.  IT EXTENDS
FROM 31N83W TO 28N89W.  LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ELY
SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.   IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 92W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO.  UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH WARMER
WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.  THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED INTO THE REGION LATE WED WITH MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR
SPREADING THRU THE GULF BY LATE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N64W.  A
TROUGH EXTENDS W TO JUST S OF JAMAICA THEN TO HONDURAS NEAR
16N87W.  THIS LOW IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER ON COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH IS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN/ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOSTLY E OF PUERTO
RICO.  SAN JUAN RADAR INDICATES TRAINING IS OCCURRING OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCE OF FLOODING.  HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING COULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THRU
THE AREA INTO PUERTO RICO AS THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT.  OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVER THE REST OF THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT E OF 68W WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED FLOODING STILL A
CONCERN.  ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN... EXTREMELY DRY AIR IS THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF HISPANIOLA WITH ONLY A FEW
TRADEWIND SHOWERS.  STRONG WINDS APPROACHING 30 KT ARE OCCURRING
JUST NW OF COLOMBIA WITH AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT...
MAXIMIZING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST
BETWEEN 9N81W 11N84W PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS CONTROLLED BY TWO AREAS OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SFC TROUGH IN BETWEEN ALONG 31N36W 27N44W.  THE
TROUGH HAS BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE AXIS.  THE W ATLC HAS A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N74W.
RIDGING COVERS THE ATLC N OF 25N W OF 35W WITH AXIS ALONG 29N.
FAST ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS IN THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC WITH PLENTY
OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W
AFRICA ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE AREA.  WLY SHEAR NEAR THE ITCZ IS FAVORING TSTMS OF 35W.  IN
THE E ATLC... RETREATING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA
IS SLACKING WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF NW AFRICA. UPPER LOW IS OVER
CENTRAL MOROCCO TROUGHING SW TO 20N37W.   A CONTINUING LARGE
SAHARAN DUST OUTBREAK IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE EAST
OF A LINE FROM 1S1W 6N36W 22N37W 25N15W.

$$
FORMOSA


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