[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN 09 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG EQ1W 1N12W 2N22W 1N30W 2N41W 1N50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 1N E OF 14W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
S OF 5N BETWEEN 15W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS THE MAIN PLAYER TODAY IN THE
GULF LYING FROM APALACHEE BAY TO 27N90W 26N96W.  FOG...LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 94W.
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO FROM
19N95W PARALLELING THE COAST WITHIN 45 NM UP TO S TEXAS NEAR
OFFSHORE OF CORPUS CHRISTI.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE IN THE
AREA... GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ELY SURFACE WINDS.  THE
FRONTAL FEATURES ARE BREAKING UP WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT FROM DRY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.  THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE REGION LATE WED WITH MUCH
COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADING THRU THE GULF BY LATE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMED JUST N OF PUERTO RICO ON THE
STATIONARY TROUGH REMAINING FROM 20N62W TO JUST S OF JAMAICA
THEN HONDURAS.  THIS LOW IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER ON
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH IS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN/ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOSTLY E OF PUERTO
RICO FOR NOW.  SAN JUAN RADAR INDICATES TRAINING IS OCCURRING
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCE OF FLOODING.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING COULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
THRU THE AREA INTO PUERTO RICO AS THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.  OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT E OF 68W WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED FLOODING STILL A
CONCERN.  ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN... EXTREMELY DRY AIR IS THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF HISPANIOLA WITH ONLY A FEW
TRADEWIND SHOWERS.  STRONG WINDS APPROACHING 30 KT ARE OCCURRING
JUST NW OF COLOMBIA WITH AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT...
MAXIMIZING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST
BETWEEN 9N81W 11N83.5W TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS
CONTROLLED BY TWO AREAS OF STRONG BUT WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
AND A SFC TROF IN BETWEEN ALONG 31N37W 28N43.5W.  TROF COMPRISES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
AXIS.  THE W ATLC HAS A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N67W RIDGING WSW
THRU N-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH DISSIPATING SCATTERED MIDDLE CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 55W AND THE BAHAMAS.
RIDGING COVERS THE ATLC N OF 25N W OF 35W WITH AXIS ALONG
28N-30N.  FAST ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS IN THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC
WITH PLENTY OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO W AFRICA ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGING BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA.  WLY SHEAR NEAR THE ITCZ IS FAVORING
TSTMS OF 35W.  IN THE E ATLC... RETREATING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
MEDITERRANEAN SEA IS SLACKING WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF NW
AFRICA. UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL MOROCCO TROUGHING SW TO
20N37W.  TYPICAL LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE E ATLC E OF 25W IS
VIRTUALLY GONE THANKS TO A CONTINUING LARGE SAHARAN DUST
OUTBREAK SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES TO THE RIGHT OF A
LINE FROM 1S1W 6N36W 22N37W 25N15W.

$$
BLAKE

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